AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

It's probably also worth mentioning that if the process for the ICSID registration was begun some months ago, then the DRC has been aware of this for some months. Under ICSID rules the other party is informed as soon as a request for arbitration is filed. So theyve known for a while that this is coming. Has that changed anything? Maybe, we don't know why Zijin appears to have left the building. Or at least the RCCD. That could be some pressure being applied for an outcome, though the government could fix this simply with issuance of a licence and avoid the ICSID case, so that seems perhaps unlikely. What it doesn't appear to have done is push us all together towards the negotiating table. Yet. As far as we're aware anyway

The only negotiating that I wanna see is the TO price.
And not some shitty 1 or 2 or 5 bucks

These developments are a real problem for FT and DRC if AVZ holds its nerve.

 

[cruiser51]

If I realised I had the power to be an influencer I would have got on the piss and started ranting fucking ages ago!!

You highly likely can make more money being an influencer than an AVZ investor.
Ever tried selling shoe laces?

 

[Winenut]

You highly likely can make more money being an influencer than an AVZ investor.
Ever tried selling shoe laces?

as a matter of fact.....yes ....in a strange and weird coincidence!

 

[Carlos Danger]

So was the outburst from Celistin saying AVZ was "out", together with the (alleged) removal of Dathcom of 13359 by CAMI around the same time, triggered by the lodgement of this ICSID case, or was the ICSID case triggered by those 2 events?

My assumption on stuff like that is there is always some grain of truth to be extracted. A smoking gun to prove the above as factual has yet to be revealed, i.e. a Ministerial decree has not surfaced, so I don't give any of the above too much credibility, but even in DRC, such events do not appear out of thin air.

@muks My other query for today is: is the $1.50 $3.50 poser USD or AUD?

The only negotiating that I wanna see is the TO price.
And not some shitty 1 or 2 or 5 bucks

These developments are a real problem for FT and DRC if AVZ holds its nerve.

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

But none of the money can go to China. That's why Jin Cheng were removed from Dathcom. And Cominiere's share goes directly to the DRC government. Just a wild guess off the top of my head the takeover price for the entirety of the Manono project will be somewhere around 5.66b USD (1.81 AUD per AVZ share).

 

[BEISHA]

Okay folks

I have recovered whatever level of decorum I had prior to my frustration fuelled outburts and posts around midnight last night (Australian Central Standard Time)

As I said I deleted a bunch of those angry, frustrated posts this morning

I was calmly reading through all the other posts today with my sober-sanity hat on......photo attached

View attachment 38125

Now stay with me folks........

Anyhoo

While I was reading through all the posts I couldn't help but notice this one from @Frank which quoted a Tweet from franz muller....please read below carefully and check the posting time

View attachment 38126


Now despite the fact that I had deleted my posts it just so happened @cruiser51 had responded to one at 12:59am (prior to me deleting them around 5:30am this morning) and my partial post is still visible in his response

So have a read of this......(I have highlighted for your convenience)

View attachment 38127

Now what the fuck is up with that?

Anyone know cheeky Franz?

Just wondering

Now what the fuck is up with that?

Are you confirming that you are a multi niccer ?.....

 

[DoubleA]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

But none of the money can go to China. That's why Jin Cheng were removed from Dathcom. And Cominiere's share goes directly to the DRC government. Just a wild guess off the top of my head the takeover price for the entirety of the Manono project will be somewhere around 5.66b USD (1.81 AUD per AVZ share).

Really interesting theory. Certainly better than losing the lot and at least it would mean that Zijin/Jincheng/Simon Cong don't get the project.

Still frustrating though that those of us that correctly predicted the potential 5 years ago and invested won't see full value due to people in power artificially lowering the price through getting the decree cancelled and obstructing the license etc.

Hopefully this latest ICSID request can get us closer to $2.50 to $3. Whoever owns the project can still make billions.

 

[Flight996]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

Unfortunately, the Chinese have done everything possible for the past two years to steal this project, including bribery, forgery and coersion. They also have the processing capacity, the relationship with the DRC govt and the political will to make it happen for them.
The west on the other hand has been mostly silent, except for Antony Blinken, the US Sec of State who in August 2021, said that the US will invest in the DRC when corruption stops.
On balance it seems that the west has no interest in getting into this den of snakes.

Cheers
F

 

[tonster66]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

But none of the money can go to China. That's why Jin Cheng were removed from Dathcom. And Cominiere's share goes directly to the DRC government. Just a wild guess off the top of my head the takeover price for the entirety of the Manono project will be somewhere around 5.66b USD (1.81 AUD per AVZ share).

View attachment 38129
View attachment 38130

Liontown knocked back $2.50. I would want at least $3

 

[DoubleA]

Unfortunately, the Chinese have done everything possible for the past two years to steal this project, including bribery, forgery and coersion. They also have the processing capacity, the relationship with the DRC govt and the political will to make it happen for them.
The west on the other hand has been mostly silent, except for Antony Blinken, the US Sec of State who in August 2021, said that the US will invest in the DRC when corruption stops.
In my view, the west has no interest in getting into this den of snakes.

Cheers
F

I agree that China got an early advantage and has been doing everything they can to steal this project.

However at some stage USA has to wake up. The resources are in Africa. How stupid do they have to be to just let China take it all? USA are certainly aware of the critical role chips/Taiwan will play moving forward. They may even go to war for it. The battle for USA vs China dominance will involve chips as well as various resources including lithium.

As mentioned by Carlos, the USA has signed an MOU and obviously discussions have been held regarding the battery value chain. I am surprised at how late the USA's interest has been, but they have to figure out the value of these resources at some stage right?

 

[cruiser51]

Now what the fuck is up with that?

Are you confirming that you are a multi niccer ?.....

That's a racist fukkin remark, wash your mouth with solvol and 36 hail maries!

 

[cruiser51]

Would you like to call Vlad on the hotline and invite him to La Fleuve Hotel for a party with exotic dancers and when old Vlad is drunk and disorderly, my men move in and arrest him for warcrimes?
How about that for a bit of fun?

 

[Flight996]

I agree that China got an early advantage and has been doing everything they can to steal this project.

However at some stage USA has to wake up. The resources are in Africa. How stupid do they have to be to just let China take it all? USA are certainly aware of the critical role chips/Taiwan will play moving forward. They may even go to war for it. The battle for USA vs China dominance will involve chips as well as various resources including lithium.

As mentioned by Carlos, the USA has signed an MOU and obviously discussions have been held regarding the battery value chain. I am surprised at how late the USA's interest has been, but they have to figure out the value of these resources at some stage right?

You make a fair point about the USA in particular needing access to resources, and Africa is the world's low-cost mine. However, the bulk of the world's lithium comes from Australia, Argentina and Chile rather than Africa. Canada, particularly the James Bay area of Ontario is proving up some economic finds, including PMT's CX5, which is the new Manono and will be operational well before a single spade of dirt gets turned over at Manono. It is possible that Canada, Mexico and South America can supply USA's needs.

Almost daily, it seems that more and more sources of lithium are discovered, which reduces the west's need for the DRC's lithium. That's not to say that Manono spodumine is unwanted, but maybe not so much by the USA as we think.

This slow motion train wreck has a way to go yet.

Cheers
F

 

[Dazmac66]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

But none of the money can go to China. That's why Jin Cheng were removed from Dathcom. And Cominiere's share goes directly to the DRC government. Just a wild guess off the top of my head the takeover price for the entirety of the Manono project will be somewhere around 5.66b USD (1.81 AUD per AVZ share).

View attachment 38129
View attachment 38130

Tell them to shove it up their arse!

 

[David Krappenschitz]

Would love a nice TO price, but honestly what does it matter the potential TO price when we appear to be at risk of being screwed over completely and losing everything. A TO at just $1.50 would be a massive relief after all this

 

[John25]

If I realised I had the power to be an influencer I would have got on the piss and started ranting fucking ages ago!!

I would have thought more …”under the influence(r)”…

 

[TDITD]

AVZ are not going to mine, this in my opinion is thier last ditch effort to secure a mining licence though negotiated means prior to TO.

The two outcomes for AVZ IMO are TO without mining licence or TO with mining licence.

Rumour has it there is currently an offer on the table as the project stands, without the mining licence circa $1.50.

If we can force the Governments hand into issuing us a ML, then that price in my opinion increases to around $3.50.

Even if we don't get the ML, the price has just gone up. The DRC can influence the buyer to pay the $2.50 so the arbitration case can be dropped.

Make no mistake about it, the board are doing everything they can to maximise shareholder value and they have my full support.

In a perfect world DRC would have issued the mining licence as we all thought they would have. But most of us underestimated the corruption and the squeeze the Chinese have over the DRC. There were a few posters who rightfully recognised this risk.

The non issuance on the mining licence was and is a result of the Chinese exerting pressure through nefarious means. The Chinese have long held the belief that if we don't get the mining licence then they can just take our project for little or nothing. They've had plenty of opportunities to pay fair price for the project but that's just not how they do business. Unfortunately for them this arrogance has not served them well.

The Chinese have underestimated Nigel and our BOD and they have also underestimated the DRC.

As much as shareholders feel animosity towards DRC Government officials I believe they want to do the right thing and break away from Chinese influence, but as we know it's not easy and the Chinese will not give up without a fight. They have deep pockets and will use any means necessary to maintain influence. They are an unrivaled force in the DRC and breaking away from their stranglehold will take time, but there have been encouraging signs.

This ICSID arbitration process allows the DRC Government an opportunity to rule against Chinese wishes with limited backlash as this forum carries the weight required to go against the Chinese. I'm sure It's the decision they would have liked to have made in the first instance, a decision that would have been hard to make with the Chinese standing over you holding a gun to your head.

All my opinion (apart from the rumours)

Well said muks a balanced and reasonable post.
$12

 

[Roon]

Would love a nice TO price, but honestly what does it matter the potential TO price when we appear to be at risk of being screwed over completely and losing everything. A TO at just $1.50 would be a massive relief after all this

110%. I'd be popping Nigels flat champagne and doing cartwheels if this happens. Finding it harder and harder to face either an outright loss or waiting the years that an ICSID case will take for an uncertain outcome. Let's hope this proves to be the milkshake that brings all the boys to the yard, and get this negotiated outcome happening.

 

[TDITD]

Sorry guys I lost the plot......

I have deleted a bunch of my frustrated venting posts

Apologies if I offended anyone

I’m offended, I missed them

 

[timb89]

Where is this $1.50 rumour coming from?

 

[Xerof]

Where is this $1.50 rumour coming from?

3 houses down from where the $12 rumour is circulating