Half yearly results:

Hi all - apologies for the delay - life is full and I'm pretty much locked into PNV at these levels so no longer prioritise keeping track of it.

On the recent half yearly data.
In summary, the recent figures do in fact show a very small decrease in the rate of growth using the quarterly model. That is different to what the $10m month recently showed in the monthly model.

The decrease was that the gradient (rate of change) of the model went from 0.0399 to 0.0379
That's a very small change.
It is also the first time the gradient has decreased with new data in the quarterly model which has effectively smoother out the lumpiness.

Previously the model was projecting $55.9m for sales for 1HFY25
The actual result was $54.1m for 1HFY25. (Projected was about 3.3% over.)

What do we take from that?

First up, yes the rate of change did decrease.
But, it has decreased only a small amount.
And it is one data point.
There is no pattern in a one off value.

So, we now look forward to the next data point in the quarterly model. To see if perhaps there has been a point of inflection or if it was simply one data point slightly out of whack.

I have bought recently while the price was under $2.20 That's my ongoing view.

Will post the graphic in the next post.

So here is how it looks graphically with the new regression line slightly lower than the last.
Interestingly the model now is a better fit (R^2 = 0.9838) than the previous (0.9776).



This change to the model values gives us new forward projections for sales. Full Year FY25 = $118.4m

Note that the BARDA and other contribution was also down in H1. This cannot be modelled as its is in no way "naturally occurring". Parts of it are arbitrary.

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Thanks for that detailed info.
I think we all felt this half was a bit lower than expected (although very close).
They really need to finish BARDA and bring out more products. Seems the market is becoming more competitive with Kerecis doing well and also new products that have antimicrobial properties built in.

My conspiracy theory is that State Street are tracking PNV closely and have seen growth not high enough to get institutions buying in enough volume and are now supressing the price - going from $2.30ish when they borrowed the 7m shares to short to $2.13 today as they keep dumping them. If they can keep doing this until EOFY Swami wont make his LTI and he and DW might mutually agree to part ways which would result in a short term crash/drop in the SP when announced - leading to a large profit on the short.

I'm not going to even "blink" based on a single result.

If the next data point also shows a slowing, then it might be worth considering.

But we need to remember this is a slowing in the acceleration of sales. They are still accelerating!

Its moved back under my $2.15 mark so will be trying to add on the low again.

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Lattelarry said:

Thanks for that detailed info.
I think we all felt this half was a bit lower than expected (although very close).
They really need to finish BARDA and bring out more products. Seems the market is becoming more competitive with Kerecis doing well and also new products that have antimicrobial properties built in.

My conspiracy theory is that State Street are tracking PNV closely and have seen growth not high enough to get institutions buying in enough volume and are now supressing the price - going from $2.30ish when they borrowed the 7m shares to short to $2.13 today as they keep dumping them. If they can keep doing this until EOFY Swami wont make his LTI and he and DW might mutually agree to part ways which would result in a short term crash/drop in the SP when announced - leading to a large profit on the short.

Click to expand...

Well as I thought Swami is gone, although in different circumstances and a bit earlier which is good.
I think in the end he just couldn't deliver - had promised accelerated growth which never eventuated. I kept waiting to see if he had secured a rolling contract or similar for a large amount that would boost earnings in a recurring way which markets like (ie PME) but nothing ever eventuated.

Sometimes these people that come from big corporates are so used to the massive infrastructure that they have had available and when coming to a much smaller company they struggle as they don't have the machine behind them.
Also who knows how much time he spent in any of the offices.

But the failure is on DW too - we are now around the same share price as 6 years ago - but with inflation (and small cap raise) its really worth about half as much as it was in 2019 in real terms.

I'm guessing he will step down within 12-18 months if the right CEO is found in that time.